Decision-Making
24 posts
The Scientific Method as a Decision Framework
Most structured decision frameworks are really just the scientific method adapted to different time scales and contexts.
Scenario Planning for When You Don't Know What's Coming
How to prepare for crises when you can't predict which specific crisis will hit - lessons from high-reliability organizations.
Bet A Day: An App for Practicing Decisions Under Uncertainty
I built an iOS app to practice making decisions under uncertainty and reflecting on them, using the stock market as a source of randomness.
From Theory to Practice: Building Real Decision Models with Petersburg
A practical guide to modeling complex decisions with Monte Carlo simulation using petersburg, featuring real case studies from startups and drug development.
Resulting: Why Good Decisions Sometimes Look Bad
How judging decisions by their outcomes creates perverse incentives in organizations and why we struggle to separate luck from skill.
Decision Making Frameworks
Systematic approaches to making better decisions, from expected value theory to recognition-primed decisions and everything in between.
Recognition-Primed Decisions: Expert Intuition Under Pressure
How experts make split-second, high-consequence decisions under extreme uncertainty when there's no time for systematic analysis.
The Nursing Decision Cycle: Clinical Judgment Under Pressure
How nurses make high-consequence decisions under extreme time pressure when lives hang in the balance and mistakes cost lives.
Deciding with Incomplete Data: When Perfect Information Isn't Possible
How high-stakes organizations make critical decisions when waiting for complete data could be fatal. Learn three decision frameworks for uncertainty.
High-Reliability Organizations: When Failure Isn't an Option
How organizations that can't afford mistakes make decisions that save lives. Learn the five principles that keep critical systems safe.